Abstract
Especially for pediatric patients, proxies of mucosal inflammation are needed. The Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI) has been established to predict clinical and endoscopic disease activity. However, histologic inflammation might persist. We applied a special variable selection technique to predict histologic healing in pediatric ulcerative colitis (UC) as parsimoniously (but still as precisely) as possible. The retrospective analysis included data from two study cohorts, comprising 91 visits from 59 pediatric patients with UC. A Bayesian ordinal regression model was used in combination with a projection-predictive feature selection (PPFS) to identify a minimal subset of clinical and laboratory parameters sufficient for the prediction of histologic disease activity. Following the PPFS, CEDATA-GPGE patient registry data were analyzed to investigate the relevance of the selected predictors in relation to PUCAI and Physician Global Assessment (PGA) in up to 6697 patient visits. Fecal calprotectin (FC) and platelet count were identified as the minimal subset of predictors sufficient for prediction of histologic disease activity in pediatric UC. FC and platelet count also appeared to be associated with increasing disease activity as measured by PUCAI and PGA in the CEDATA-GPGE registry. Based on the selected model, predictions can be performed with a Shiny web app. Conclusion: Our statistical approach constitutes a reproducible and objective tool to select a minimal subset of the most informative parameters to predict histologic inflammation in pediatric UC. A Shiny app shows how physicians may predict the histologic activity in a user-friendly way using FC and platelet count. To generalize the findings, further prospective studies will be needed. What is Known: • Histologic healing is a major endpoint in the therapy of ulcerative colitis (UC). • The PUCAI score has been established to predict disease activity in pediatric UC but is not suitable for the prediction of histologic healing. What is New: • Our Bayesian ordinal regression model in combination with a projection-predictive feature selection is a reproducible and objective tool to select the minimal subset of clinical and laboratory parameters to predict histologic inflammation in pediatric UC. • Histologic inflammation in pediatric UC can be non-invasively predicted based on the combination of fecal calprotectin levels and platelet count.