Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Research is lacking on the natural history of acute pancreatitis (AP) progression to acute recurrent pancreatitis (ARP). The aim of this project was to study the progression from AP to ARP among pediatric patients with pancreatitis to better understand the presentation and natural history of pancreatitis. METHODS: Patients presenting with AP were included in a prospective database in Research Electronic Data Capture. We enrolled 115 patients with AP from March 2013 to November 2016. Physicians completed surveys regarding clinical data for patients with first attack of AP. Patients were followed prospectively, with data on progression entered when patients presented with ARP. RESULTS: The most common etiologies for the first attack of AP were idiopathic (31%), toxic/drug-related (23%), and biliary/gallstone (18%). Twenty of the 115 patients (17%) developed ARP during the follow-up period. Seventy percent (14/20) of patients with ARP progressed from AP to ARP within 5 months from first diagnosis. A comparison of patients who rapidly progressed to ARP within 3 months (n = 12) to those followed for >3 months without progression in 3 months (n = 97) revealed associations with a higher weight percentile for age (P = 0.045), male sex (P = 0.03), and presence of pancreatic necrosis during first AP attack (P = 0.004). Progression to ARP significantly differed by etiology group with genetics having the highest risk for ARP progression over time and patients with gallstone/biliary, viral/systemic, and obstructive (nongallstone) having the lowest risk for ARP progression over time (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Most patients who progressed from AP to ARP progressed within 5 months. The presence of a higher weight percentile for age, male sex, and pancreatic necrosis during the first AP attack are associated with rapid progression to ARP.