Abstract
OBJECTIVE: The natural course of patients who develop acute pancreatitis (AP) can range from mild to severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). The aim of this study was to evaluate for early predictors of developing SAP during the first episode of AP in a prospective pediatric cohort. METHODS: Clinical data were prospectively collected and subsequently analyzed for pediatric patients presenting with their first episode of AP between March 2013 and January 2017 to Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center. RESULTS: A total of 118 patients were included in the analysis, and 22 (18.6%) developed SAP. Patients who developed SAP had significantly higher values of blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (P = 0.007), magnesium (P = 0.04), glucose (P = 0.03), sodium (P = 0.03), and C-reactive protein (P = 0.02). A logistic regression model with BUN as a predictor of SAP was superior to any other combination of variables (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.89; sensitivity, 63%; specificity, 81%; positive predictive value, 43%; negative predictive value, 91%). CONCLUSIONS: This study generated a predictive model using elevated BUN as a significant predictor of SAP. The findings are useful for early identification of pediatric patients at higher risk of developing SAP.