Abstract
BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to predict when Bangladesh would achieve Sustainable Development Goal Target 3.1, which is to reduce the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 per 100 000 live births. METHODS: We used secondary data from the 1993 to 2017 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys and other sources to project the MMR until 2060 under several scenario assumptions using an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous variables (ARMAX). Explanatory variables were selected based on the three delays model, and a reference forecast and four practical scenarios were simulated: Scenario 1 assumed a 4% annual increase in institutional deliveries, Scenario 2 followed the national goals, the reference forecast and Scenario 3 varied in terms of district-wise increase rates (Scenario 3 had a lower rate of increase), and Scenario 4 assumed minimal changes in institutional deliveries. RESULTS: Scenario 1 was the earliest, with an MMR of <70 per 100 000 live births in 2026. Scenario 2 would meet the target of <70 per 100 000 live births in 2029. The reference forecast had the third lowest MMR, with 69.78 per 100 000 live births (95% prediction intervals (PI) = 32.44 to 107.11) in 2049. Although the MMR for Scenario 3 decreased slowly, it would not reduce below 70 per 100 000 live births by 2060. Scenario 4, which had the highest MMR, also resulted in the MMR not reducing below 70 per 100 000 live births by 2060. CONCLUSIONS: To increase the institutional delivery rate and reduce the MMR, as in Scenarios 1 and 2, it is necessary to improve the institutional delivery rate in regions with low institutional delivery rates. Additionally, health facilities need to provide appropriate quality medical care to increase the institutional delivery rate and contribute to a decrease in the MMR, as shown by the results of this study.