Abstract
BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for the treatment of nonmetastatic muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). NAC is, however, underutilized in practice because of its associated limited overall survival (OS) benefit and significant treatment-related toxicity. We hypothesized that the absence of circulating tumour cells (CTCs) identifies MIBC patients with such a favourable prognosis that NAC may be withheld. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The CirGuidance study was an open-label, multicentre trial that included patients with clinical stage T2-T4aN0-N1M0 MIBC, scheduled for radical cystectomy. CTC-negative patients (no CTCs detectable using the CELLSEARCH system) underwent radical surgery without NAC; CTC-positive patients (≥1 detectable CTCs) were advised to receive NAC, followed by radical surgery. The primary endpoint was the 2-year OS in the CTC-negative group with a prespecified criterion for trial success of ≥75% (95% confidence interval (CI) ±5%). RESULTS: A total of 273 patients were enrolled. Median age was 69 years; median follow-up was 36 months. The primary endpoint of 2-year OS in the CTC-negative group was 69.5% (N = 203; 95% CI 62.6%-75.5%). Two-year OS was 58.2% in the CTC-positive group (N = 70; 95% CI 45.5%-68.9%). CTC-positive patients had a higher rate of cancer-related mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.61, 95% CI 1.05-2.45, P = 0.03] and disease relapse (HR 1.87, 95% CI 1.28-2.73, P = 0.001) than CTC-negative patients. Explorative analyses suggested that CTC-positive patients who had received NAC (n = 22) survived longer than CTC-positive patients who had not (n = 48). CONCLUSION: The absence of CTCs in MIBC patients was associated with improved cancer-related mortality and a lower risk of disease relapse after cystectomy; however, their absence alone does not justify to withhold NAC. Exploratory analyses suggested that CTC-positive MIBC patients might derive more benefit from NAC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Netherlands Trial Register NL3954; https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/3954.