Abstract
PURPOSE: This study aimed to determine whether baseline blood inflammatory markers can predict progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). METHODS: The study included 158 patients with mRCC treated with first-line targeted therapy between 2002 and 2016. A multivariable cox proportional hazards model identified inflammatory factors that predict PFS and OS. Using bootstrap method, new prognostic model compared with Heng and modified MSKCC risk model (mMSKCC). The effect of inflammatory factors were investigated by comparing increased C-index adding significant inflammatory factors to Heng and mMSKCC model. RESULTS: On multivariable analysis, nephrectomy (HR 0.48), NLR (HR 1.04), were significant risk factors for PFS; nephrectomy (HR 0.38), hemoglobin (HR 1.71), alkaline phosphatase (HR 1.73), NLR (HR 1.01) and DRR (HR 1.34), were significant factors for OS (p<0.05). Our new model that incorporated NLR and DRR had higher (though insignificant) predictability (C-index=0.610) than mMSKCC risk model (C-index=0.569) in PFS and significantly better predictability (C-index=0.727) than Heng and mMSKCC risk model (C-index, 0.661, 0.612, respectively) in OS. Adding inflammatory factors to the Heng criteria (C-index, 0.697 for OS) and MSKCC (0.691 for OS) tended to improve their predictive abilities. CONCLUSIONS: The NLR and DRR may increase predictive ability compared to the established Heng and mMSKCC risk models in mRCC.