Abstract
Scientific research is driven by allocation of funding to different research projects based in part on the predicted scientific impact of the work. Data-driven algorithms can inform decision-making of scarce funding resources by identifying likely high-impact studies using bibliometrics. Compared to standardized citation-based metrics alone, we utilize a machine learning pipeline that analyzes high-dimensional relationships among a range of bibliometric features to improve the accuracy of predicting high-impact research. Random forest classification models were trained using 28 bibliometric features calculated from a dataset of 1,485,958 publications in medicine to retrospectively predict whether a publication would become high-impact. For each random forest model, the balanced accuracy score was above 0.95 and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was above 0.99. The high performance of high impact research prediction using our proposed models show that machine learning technologies are promising algorithms that can support funding decision-making for medical research.