Abstract
INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Caries risk assessment is an essential part of the diagnostic process. Many studies have assessed these tools, proving their effectiveness in reducing future caries risk in developed countries with low caries prevalence. However, Filipino children have consistently registered high caries prevalence rates in successive official surveys. This prospective study aimed to compare the validity of available caries risk assessment tools in predicting future caries among a high-caries-prevalent population in the Philippines. METHODS: From the vaccination registry of community health centres in Caloocan City, Philippines, children aged 4-24 months underwent oral examinations according to modified International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) criteria, and their primary caregivers were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Baseline caries risk categories were evaluated using 3 available tools, without biological tests. Caries incidence was recorded during the follow-up visit after 2 years. RESULTS: Baseline oral examinations in 703 toddlers (mean age: 13.3 months, standard deviation (SD) 2.4) revealed a high caries prevalence of 29.2%. Of the 654 eligible children without cavitated caries at baseline, 323 (mean age: 35.6 months, SD 5.1) attended the 2-year follow-up visit, with a caries incidence (cavitated and non-cavitated) of 76.5%. Caries-risk Assessment Form (CrAF) demonstrated high sensitivity but low specificity scores (93.1% and 3.9%), while Caries Management by Risk Assessment (CAMBRA) showed similar patterns (71.7% and 34.2%). Conversely, Cariogram exhibited low sensitivity but high specificity (23.5% and 80.3%). CONCLUSION: Among CrAF, CAMBRA or Cariogram, no assessment tool came close (sensitivity + specificity < 160) to effectively identify toddlers highly at risk of caries development. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Current CRA tools lack sufficient accuracy in predicting caries development in high-risk populations like Filipino children. Refinement or development of more valid tools is crucial for implementing effective caries prevention strategies at both individual and population levels.