Abstract
Several noninvasive indices have been proposed for predicting liver cirrhosis (LC), particularly in chronic hepatitis C (CHC). In this study, noninvasive indices for predicting LC and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were compared. A total of 119 chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients and 240 CHC patients were evaluated in a hospital-based setting using various predictors for pathologic LC such as aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio (AAR), AAR-to-platelet ratio index (AARPRI), AST-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), age-platelet (AP) index, and platelet counts. In addition, these indices were used to predict LC [based on ultrasound (US)] in a community-based population of 201 patients with endemic hepatitis C virus (HCV). These indices were evaluated for their ability to predict HCC in CHB and CHC patients (n = 200). In CHB patients, the diagnostic performance of all indices was inadequate for predicting LC (areas under receiver operating characteristic curves < 0.7). Thrombocytopenia consistently demonstrated comparable accuracy to AARPRI ≥ 0.7 in CHB and AP index ≥ 7.0 in CHC patients. The best cut-off values for APRI, AARPRI, and AP index in predicting LC in CHC were 1.3, 0.8, and 7.0, respectively. The best cut-off values for APRI, AARPRI, and AP index in predicting LC (based on US) were 1.0, 1.2, and 8.0, respectively, in a HCV endemic community. An AAR > 1.4 might be a useful tool to identify candidates at high risk for HCC. In conclusion, platelet count was both consistent and accurate in predicting LC. An AAR > 1.4 is proposed as a possible surrogate marker for identifying patients at high risk for developing HCC.