Abstract
AIMS: This study aims to analyze the global cancer burden attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG), and to predict disease burden trends over the next decade. METHODS: Through systematic processing and statistical analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) database, we analyzed the temporal trends in HFPG-attributable cancer burden and its disparities across geographical regions, economic regions, sex, and age groups.We projected the burden for the period 2022–2031 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. RESULTS: Globally, the cancer burden attributable to HFPG demonstrated a consistent upward trend from 1990 to 2021. In 2021, cancer mortality attributable to HFPG reached 328,309, representing a 195% increase from the 1990 of 111,322. Within the five SDI regions, high SDI regions exhibited the greatest disease burden. Additionally, men, middle-aged, and elderly people are more severely affected. Finally, the burden of most cancers is projected to continue to rise over the next decade. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed a significant increasing trend in the HFPG-attributable cancer burden over the past thirty-two years. Furthermore, the cancer burden attributable to HFPG is projected to continue increasing over the next decade. It is crucial to develop targeted, tiered prevention strategies. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13098-025-02074-z.