Abstract
BACKGROUND: We examined the longitudinal association between (change in) physical activity (PA) with new onset of five risk factors of metabolic syndrome among 657 middle-aged adults (mean age 44.1 (standard deviation (SD) 8.6) years) who were free of the respective outcome at baseline, in a longitudinal cohort study spanning over 29 years. METHODS: Levels of habitual PA and sports-related PA were assessed by a self-reported questionnaire. Incident elevated waist circumference (WC), elevated triglycerides (TG), reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterols (HDL), elevated blood pressure (BP), and elevated blood-glucose (BG) were assessed by physicians and by self-reported questionnaires. We calculated Cox proportional hazard ratio regressions and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Over time, participants developed (cases of incident risk factor; mean (SD) follow-up time) elevated WC (234 cases; 12.3 (8.2) years), elevated TG (292 cases; 11.1 (7.8) years), reduced HDL (139 cases; 12.4 (8.1) years), elevated BP (185 cases; 11.4 (7.5) years), or elevated BG (47 cases; 14.2 (8.5) years). For PA variables at baseline, risk reductions ranging between 37 and 42% for reduced HDL levels were detected. Furthermore, higher levels of PA (≥ 16.6 METh per week) were associated with a 49% elevated risk for incident elevated BP. Participants who increased PA levels over time, had risk reductions ranging between 38 and 57% for elevated WC, elevated TG and reduced HDL. Participants with stable high amounts of PA from baseline to follow-up had risk reductions ranging between 45 and 87% for incident reduced HDL and elevated BG. CONCLUSIONS: PA at baseline, starting PA engagement, maintaining and increasing PA level over time are associated with favorable metabolic health outcomes.