Abstract
BACKGROUND: In this prospective cohort study, we aimed to evaluate the association between dietary carbohydrates, whole grains, refined grains, and simple sugar with the risk of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and assess the effect of weight change on these associations. METHODS: This study was conducted within the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). We included 1915 healthy participants with complete demographic, anthropometric and dietary measurements, among whom 591 developed MetS during 8.9 years of follow-up. Intake of dietary carbohydrates, whole grains, refined grains, and simple sugar was assessed with a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for MetS events across tertiles of dietary variables. Using joint classification, the effect of weight change on the association between dietary variables and risk of MetS was assessed by Cox regression. RESULTS: Carbohydrate intake was not associated with the risk of MetS in multivariable-adjusted models. Whole grains intake was inversely associated with the risk of MetS (HR: 0.78, CI: 0.63-0.98), while this association disappeared after adjustment for weight change. The risk of MetS increased by 11% (1.11, 1.09-1.14) for each 3% energy increment from simple sugar, and by 5% (1.05, 1.03-1.08) for each 1 serving/day increment in refined grains. Consumption of refined grains increased the risk of MetS; an effect modification of this association was found by weight change. Among subjects with weight loss, intake of refined grains < median intake decreased the risk of MetS (0.59, 0.41-0.87). However, consumption of refined grains ≥ median intake increased the risk of MetS in individuals with weight gain (1.47, 1.08-2.01). Simple sugar was positively associated with an increased risk of MetS, after adjustment for weight change (3.00, 2.37-3.82). In joint classification, intake of simple sugar greater than median intake increased the risk of MetS, independent of weight change. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest an effect modification by weight change on the association between carbohydrates, and refined grains intake and the risk of MetS. Weight loss along with lower consumption of carbohydrates, and refined grains reduced the risk of MetS. However, simple sugar intake, regardless of weight change, was associated with an increased risk of MetS.