Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Despite high rates of complications in patients with CKD without diabetes, the implementation of proven therapies in this group remains low. Expressing the clinical benefit of a therapy in terms of extra years free from the disease or death may facilitate implementation. We estimated lifetime survival free of kidney failure for patients with albuminuric CKD without diabetes treated with the combination therapy of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors relative to patients not treated. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We used trial-level estimates of the effect of treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers (ramipril/benazepril; n=690) and SGLT2 inhibitors (dapagliflozin; n=1398) compared with placebo to derive the effect of combination therapy versus no treatment. Using this effect, we estimated treatment effect of combination therapy to the active treatment group of patients with albuminuric CKD without diabetes participating in the Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease (DAPA-CKD) trial (n=697) and projected eventfree and overall survival for those treated and not treated with combination therapy. We also performed our calculations anticipating lower adherence and less pronounced benefits than were observed in the clinical trials. The primary outcome was a composite of doubling of serum creatinine, kidney failure, or death. RESULTS: The aggregate estimated hazard ratio comparing combination therapy with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers and SGLT2 inhibitor versus no treatment for the primary end point was 0.35 (95% confidence interval, 0.30 to 0.41). For a 50-year-old patient until the age of 75 years, the estimated survival free from the primary composite end point was 17.0 (95% confidence interval, 12.4 to 19.6) years with the combination therapy and 9.6 years (95% confidence interval, 8.4 to 10.7) with no treatment with any of these agents, corresponding to a gain in eventfree survival of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 6.4 to 8.7) years. When assuming lower adherence and less pronounced efficacy of combination therapy, the gain in eventfree survival ranged from 5.3 years (95% confidence interval, 4.4 to 6.1) to 5.8 years (95% confidence interval, 4.8 to 6.8). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with the combination of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers and SGLT2 inhibitor in patients with albuminuric CKD without diabetes is expected to substantially increase kidney failure-free survival. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: Benazepril for Advanced Chronic Renal Insufficiency, NCT00270426, and a Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on Renal Outcomes and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease (Dapa-CKD), NCT03036150.