A simple method for generating long-term Holocene climate data with future climate projections from meteorological observation data

一种利用气象观测数据生成全新世长期气候数据及未来气候预测的简便方法

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Abstract

Peatlands play a crucial role in global carbon storage, yet their resilience to climate change remains uncertain. This study presents a novel method for generating long-term (>1000 years) site-specific climate data to drive peatland ecohydrological models. Using meteorological observations, we employ the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) to produce stochastic climate series for precipitation and temperature. The method integrates Holocene climate reconstructions from the EPOCH-2 database to simulate paleoclimate trends and interpolates climate projections based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) from CMIP6 models. Finally, a time series of potential evapotranspiration is calculated using a modified version of the Thornthwaite equation. This approach ensures continuity in climate inputs for peatland modelling, aiding in the assessment of long-term climate impacts on carbon dynamics. Our method provides a replicable framework for other regions, supporting improved climate-driven peatland simulations.•Long-term paleoclimate data with climate projections tailored to specific sites are scarcely available•This research outlines a simple method for generating climate series for driving ecosystem models•Uses open-source resources and databases that are applicable across Europe.

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