Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although the number of places at medical schools and physicians in Germany has increased continuously over the past 25 years, there is a threat of a shortage of physicians. Based on data from the Bavarian Medical Association (BLÄK) and the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians of Bavaria (KVB), an analysis of the number of physicians in Bavaria over a longer period of time was carried out in order to understand current developments and possible starting points for the future organization of medical care. The figures were analyzed with regard to the distribution of physicians by outpatient and inpatient sector as well as with regard to the development of the number of employees, the scope of employment and the gender distribution in the outpatient sector. METHODS: Data were taken from the annually published and systematically compiled numbers of physicians from the BLÄK (2000 to 2022) as well as the outpatient billing data of practicing and employed physicians in Bavaria (2010 to 2022), processed by the KVB. Descriptive analyses were performed. RESULTS: Since 2000, the number of physicians in Bavaria has risen by 83% in the inpatient setting and by 35% in the outpatient setting. As a result, more physicians have been working in hospitals than in outpatient care since 2010. In the outpatient setting the trend is moving away from establishing one's own practice and full-time work towards salaried and part-time employment. Employed physicians have lower average working hours than self-employed physicians. The proportion of women among physicians has steadily increased, with female physicians more likely to be employed and working part-time compared with male physicians. Nevertheless, part-time employment is also prominent among male physicians in some specialties today. CONCLUSION: The trend towards practicing in salaried and part-time positions continues unabated and is represented across all specialties, suggesting that more physicians are needed to maintain the number of working hours over time. In addition to incentives and subsidies, this reality must be taken into account when planning care. At the same time, it is questionable whether increasing medical school places without managing them according to need is the right way to address the shortage of physicians in outpatient care when an ever-increasing proportion of physicians is working in inpatient care.