Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether frailty modifies the association of systolic blood pressure (SBP) with cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older adults. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING: A population-based study of nationally representative older Chinese adults in a community setting. PARTICIPANTS: This study included participants aged 65 years or older from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey 2002-2014 and followed up to 2018. MEASUREMENTS: Participants were divided into two groups according to a frailty index based on the accumulation of a 44-items deficits model. The association between SBP and mortality was analyzed using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Among 18,503 participants included, the mean age was 87.2 years and the overall median follow-up time was 42.7 months. We identified 7808 (42.2%) frail participants (mean frailty index=0.33), in which 7533 (96.5%) died during the follow-up. Effect modification by frailty was detected (P for interaction=0.032). Among frail participants, a U-shaped association was found with hazard ratios of 1.16 (95% CI, 1.02-1.32) for SBP < 100 mmHg, and 1.11 (95% CI, 1.00-1.24) for SBP ≥ 150 mmHg compared with SBP 120-130 mmHg. For non-frail older adults, a tendency toward higher risk among those with SBP ≥ 130 mmHg was observed. The analyses towards cardiovascular mortality showed similar results. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest the presence of effect modification by frailty indicating a possible negative effect for elevated SBP in non-frail older adults and a U-shaped relationship of SBP in frail older adults with respect to mortality even after adjusting for diastolic blood pressure.