Abstract
OBJECTIVES: The high concentration of smokers among subgroups targeted by the Affordable Care Act and the historically worse health and lower access to health care among smokers warrants an evaluation of how Medicaid expansion affects smokers. We evaluated the impact of Medicaid expansion on smoking behavior, access to health care, and health of low-income adults, and we compared outcomes of all low-income people with outcomes of low-income current smokers by states' Medicaid expansion status. METHODS: We obtained data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (2011-2016) for low-income adults aged 18-64. We estimated multivariable linear ordinary least squares probability models using a quasi-experimental difference-in-difference approach to compare smoking behavior, access to health care, and health between people in expansion states and nonexpansion states and, specifically, on low-income adults and the subgroup of low-income current smokers. RESULTS: Compared with low-income smokers in nonexpansion states, low-income smokers in expansion states were 7.6 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.7-9.6; P < .001) more likely to have health insurance, 3.2 percentage points (95% CI, 1.3-5.2; P = .001) more likely to report good or better health, and 2.0 percentage points (95% CI, -3.9 to -0.1; P = .044) less likely to have cost-related barriers to care. Health and insurance gains among current smokers in expansion states were larger relative to health gains (1.6 percentage points; 95% CI, 0.5-2.7; P = .003) and insurance gains (4.6 percentage points; 95% CI, 3.5-5.8; P < .001) of all low-income adults in these states. CONCLUSIONS: Greater improvements among low-income smokers in Medicaid expansion states compared with nonexpansion states could influence future smoking behaviors and warrant longer-term monitoring. Additionally, health and insurance gains among low-income smokers in expansion states suggest the potential for Medicaid expansion to improve health among smokers compared with nonsmokers.