Abstract
AIMS: Insulin-like growth factor binding protein-4 (IGFBP-4) fragments have been shown to predict the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, including segment-elevation myocardial infarction, in patients with acute coronary syndrome. We evaluated the prognostic value of the carboxy-terminal fragment of IGFBP-4 (CT-IGFBP-4) for all-cause mortality in emergency room patients with acute heart failure (AHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: CT-IGFBP-4, N-terminal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured at admission from the lithium-heparin plasma of 156 patients with AHF. All-cause mortality was recorded for 1 year. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, Kaplan-Meier, and Cox proportional hazard ratio analyses were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the various clinical variables, CT-IGFBP-4, NT-proBNP, CRP, and their combinations. During 1 year of follow-up, 52 (33.3%) patients died. CT-IGFBP-4 only weakly correlated with NT-proBNP (Pearson correlation coefficient r = 0.16, P = 0.044) and did not correlate with CRP (r = 0.08, P = 0.35), emphasizing the different nature of these biomarkers. The receiver operator characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of CT-IGFBP-4 for the prediction of all-cause mortality (0.727) was significantly higher than that of NT-proBNP (0.680, P = 0.045) and CRP (0.669, P = 0.016). The combination of CT-IGFBP-4, NT-proBNP, and CRP predicted mortality significantly better (ROC AUC = 0.788) than any of the biomarkers alone (P < 0.01 for all). The addition of CT-IGFBP-4 to a clinical prediction model that included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, and sodium levels, as well as the history of previous heart failure, coronary artery disease, and hypertension significantly improved the mortality risk prediction (ROC AUC 0.774 vs. 0.699, P = 0.025). Cox hazard analysis indicated that elevated CT-IGFBP-4 was independently associated with 1 year mortality (hazard ratio 3.26, P = 0.0008) after adjustment for age, gender, history of previous heart failure, coronary artery disease, hypertension, chronic kidney failure, history of diabetes, heart rate, haemoglobin, plasma sodium, NT-proBNP, CRP, cystatin C, and elevated cardiac troponin I or T. Patients with increased levels of either two or three of the biomarkers CT-IGFBP-4, NT-proBNP, and CRP had significantly higher mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 10.04, P < 0.0001) than patients with increased levels of one or none of the biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: CT-IGFBP-4 was independently associated with all-cause mortality in patients with AHF. Compared with single biomarkers, the combination of CT-IGFBP-4, NT-proBNP, and CRP improved the prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with AHF.