Abstract
Whether serum Mac-2 binding protein glycosylation isomer (M2BPGi) level at year 5 of treatment could predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development and mortality beyond year 5 of entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) treatment in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with cirrhosis remain unclear. This retrospective study investigated the role of M2BPGi level at year 5 of treatment in predicting HCC and mortality beyond year 5 in CHB patients with cirrhosis. This study analyzed 1385 cirrhotic patients receiving entecavir or TDF treatment. Of them, 899 patients who did not develop HCC within the first 5 years of treatment were enrolled. In the entire cohort, there was no significant difference in the annual incidence of HCC before and after year 5 of entecavir or TDF treatment (P = 0.455). Multivariable Cox analysis identified old age, higher AFP and M2BPGi levels at 5 years of treatment as independent predictors of HCC occurrence beyond year 5. We developed the HCC risk prediction model, AMA, based on age, M2BPGi and AFP levels at 5 years of treatment, with the total score ranging from 0 to 8. The AMA model accurately categorized patients into low (≤2), medium (2-5), and high (≥5) risk groups in the development and validation groups (P<0.001) and exhibited good discriminant function in predicting HCC beyond year 5 in cirrhotic patients (AUROC: 0.743 at 5 years). The M2BPGi of 1.0 COI at 5 years of treatment stratified the risk of all-cause and liver-related mortality beyond year 5 (P<0.001). In conclusions, M2BPGi level at 5 years of treatment is a useful marker for predicting HCC development and mortality beyond year 5 of entecavir or TDF therapy in CHB patients with cirrhosis.