Abstract
BACKGROUND: We reanalyzed a multisite 26-week randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trial of 600 mg twice-a-day Gabapentin Enacarbil Extended-Release (GE-XR), a gabapentin prodrug, designed to evaluate safety and efficacy for treating alcohol use disorder. In the original analysis (n = 338), published in 2019, GE-XR did not differ from placebo. Our aim is to advance precision medicine by identifying likely responders to GE-XR from the trial data and to determine for likely responders if GE-XR is causally superior to placebo. METHODS: The primary outcome measure in the reanalysis is the reduction from baseline of the number of heavy drinking days (ΔHDD). Baseline features including measures of alcohol use, anxiety, depression, mood states, sleep, and impulsivity were used in a random forest (RF) model to predict ΔHDD to treatment with GE-XR based on those assigned to GE-XR. The resulting RF model was used to obtain predicted outcomes for those randomized to GE-XR and counterfactually to those randomized to placebo. Likely responders to GE-XR were defined as those predicted to have a reduction of 14 days or more. Tests of causal superiority of GE-XR to placebo were obtained for likely responders and for the whole sample. RESULTS: For likely responders, GE-XR was causally superior to placebo (p < 0.0033), while for the whole sample, there was no difference. Likely responders exhibited improved outcomes for the related outcomes of percent HDD and drinks per week. Compared with unlikely responders, at baseline likely responders had higher HDDs; lower levels of anxiety, depression, and general mood disturbances; and higher levels of cognitive and motor impulsivity. CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial causal benefits of treatment with GE-XR for a subset of patients predicted to be likely responders. The likely responder statistical paradigm is a promising approach for analyzing randomized clinical trials to advance personalized treatment.