Abstract
BACKGROUND: A limited number of measures exist to assess alcohol problems during adolescence. Item response theory modeling was used to scale a measure of adolescent alcohol problems, including drinking and driving, and then related to alcohol and other psychiatric disorders that occurred over a 15-year period. METHODS: High school students (N = 832) completed the 13-item Alcohol Problems Index (API) at age 18 years as part of a long-term longitudinal study of predictors of alcohol use and alcohol disorders. Frequency of drinking and driving was also measured during adolescence. Lifetime psychiatric disorders, including alcohol disorders, were measured during young adulthood. Rasch modeling was used to scale the severity of alcohol problems, and the scaled total score was used to prospectively predict alcohol disorders. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was also computed between the adolescent alcohol problems and alcohol and other psychiatric disorders across a 15-year period. RESULTS: The prevalence of alcohol disorders was 38.7% (for alcohol dependence, it was 27.7%). Rasch modeling indicated that the API assessed a range of severity of alcohol problems and that drinking and driving were among the less severe indicators. Age 18 API scores significantly correlated with an alcohol diagnosis (0.34), and ROC curve analysis indicated that for adolescent alcohol problem scores, the diagnostic accuracy (or area under the curve) for an alcohol diagnosis by age 33 was 0.70. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings supported the unidimensionality and reliability of the API, and statistically significant prospective prediction of young adult alcohol disorders. The measurement of alcohol problems during adolescence, in addition to drinking and driving, may be beneficial in understanding adverse consequences of drinking during adolescence as well as transitions in alcohol use and alcohol disorders across the lifespan.