Abstract
In light of the recent unprecedented wildfires in Canada and the potential for increasing burned areas in the future, there is a need to explore post-fire salvage harvest and restoration and the implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Salvage logging and replanting initiatives offer a potential solution by regrowing forests more quickly while meeting societal demands for wood and bioenergy. This study presents a comprehensive modeling framework to estimate post-fire salvage biomass and net GHG emissions relative to a 'do-nothing' baseline for all of Canada's harvest-eligible forests. Forest ecosystem carbon emissions and removals were modeled at 1-ha spatial resolution for Canadian forests using the Generic Carbon Budget Model (GCBM) from 1990 to 2070 using several forest inventory data sources with future harvest and wildfires. Building upon previous research, our work integrated the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System fire intensity to estimate fire severity of future wildfires. For 2024 to 2070, we assessed the changes in ecosystem carbon, emissions from harvested wood products, and substitution benefits from avoided emissions-intensive materials, relative to a forward-looking baseline. Our prototype system provides a comprehensive framework, configuration files, links to datasets to quantify the net GHG of post-fire restoration, and sample results for validation.•Developed spatially explicit forest carbon modeling system for all of Canada's forests.•Assessed the net GHG reduction from post-fire restoration.•Used system approach to consider forests, wood products and substitution benefits.