Abstract
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is frequent in older adults and associated with left atrial (LA) dysfunction. LA strain (LAε) and LA strain rate (LASR) may detect subclinical LA disease. We investigated whether reduced LAε and LASR predict new-onset AF in older adults without history of AF or stroke. LAε and LASR were assessed by speckle-tracking echocardiography in 824 participants from the community-based Cardiovascular Abnormalities and Brain Lesions study. Positive longitudinal LAε and LASR during ventricular systole, LASR during early ventricular diastole, and LASR during LA contraction were measured. Cause-specific hazards regression model evaluated the association of LAε and LASR with incident AF, adjusting for pertinent covariates. The mean age was 71.1 ± 9.2 years (313 men, 511 women). During a mean follow-up of 10.9 years, new-onset AF occurred in 105 participants (12.7%). Lower LAε and LASR at baseline were observed in patients with new-onset AF (all p <0.01). In multivariable analysis, positive longitudinal LAε (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] per SD decrease 2.05, confidence interval [CI] 1.24 to 3.36) and LASR during LA contraction (HR per SD increase 2.24, CI 1.37 to 3.65) remained associated with new-onset AF, independently of LA volumes and left ventricular function. Along with positive longitudinal LAε, reduced LASR during ventricular systole predicted AF in participants with LA volume below the median value (HR 2.54, CI 1.10 to 6.09), whereas reduced LASR during LA contraction predicted AF in participants with larger LA (HR 2.35, CI 1.31 to 4.23). In conclusion, reduced positive longitudinal LAε and LASR predict new-onset AF in older adults regardless of LA size and may improve AF risk stratification.