Abstract
The COVID-19 outbreak that became a global pandemic in early 2020 is starting to affect agricultural supply chains and leading to a rapid rise in global food prices. As many grain exporting countries announced a ban on grain exports, food security issues in China have attracted a significant international attention. Based on the Suitability Distribution Model and Soybean-Cereal Constraint Model, we explored the relationship between soybean production potential and food security. We calculated that the soybean potential planting area in China is 164.3 million ha. If the outbreak prevents China from importing soybeans, soybean planting area will need to be increased by 6.9 times to satisfy the demands. In the meantime, cereal self-sufficiency rate will drop to 63.4%, which will greatly affect food security. Each additional unit of soybean production will reduce 3.9 units of cereal production, and 1% increase in the self-sufficiency rate of soybean will result in a 0.63% drop in the self-sufficiency rate of cereal. Without sacrificing the self-sufficiency rate of cereal, the self-sufficiency rate of soybean is limited to 42%. Consequently, China will still need to import more than 68% of the current import volume of soybean. Although in the short term, the outbreak will not affect food security in China, as soybean imports decrease, insufficient supply of soybeans will affect people's quality of life. To prevent the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, China should increase soybean stocks and strengthen international cooperation. In the long term, increasing the self-sufficiency rate is a fundamental solution to solving soybean import dependency. The key to increasing soybean cultivation is by making soybean cultivation profitable and by building a sustainable soybean planting chain.