Abstract
Pressure injury (PI) is still a significant public health problem to be solved. Accurate prediction can lead to timely prophylaxis and therapy. However, the currently used Braden score shows insufficient predictive validity. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict PI development in critically ill patients. We extracted data from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV v1.0. Variable selection was based on univariate logistic regression and all-subset regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the performance of the nomogram and Braden score. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed to identify and compare the clinical usefulness between the nomogram model and Braden score. We have developed a novel and practical nomogram that accurately predicts pressure ulcers. The AUC of the new model was better than that of the Braden score (P < .001). DCA showed that the nomogram model had a better net benefit than the Braden score at any given threshold. This finding needs to be confirmed by external validation as well as multicentre prospective studies.