Abstract
BACKGROUND: Predictors of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after trauma are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To identify independent predictors of VTE after acute trauma. METHODS: Using Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) resources, we identified all Olmsted County, MN residents with objectively-diagnosed incident VTE within 92days after hospitalization for acute trauma over the 18-year period, 1988-2005. We also identified all Olmsted County residents hospitalized for acute trauma over this time period and chose one to two residents frequency-matched to VTE cases on sex, event year group and ICD-9-CM trauma code predictive of surgery. In a case-cohort study, demographic, baseline and time-dependent characteristics were tested as predictors of VTE after trauma using Cox proportional hazards modeling. RESULTS: Among 200 incident VTE cases, the median (interquartile range) time from trauma to VTE was 18 (6, 41) days. Of these, 62% cases developed VTE after hospital discharge. In a multiple variable model including 370 cohort members, patient age at injury, male sex, increasing injury severity as reflected by the Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM) Mortality Score, immobility prior to trauma, soft tissue leg injury, and prior superficial vein thrombosis were independent predictors of VTE (C-statistic=0.78). CONCLUSIONS: We have identified clinical characteristics which can identify patients at increased risk for VTE after acute trauma, independent of surgery. Almost two thirds of all incident VTE events occurred after initial hospital discharge (18day median time from trauma to VTE) which questions current practice of not extending VTE prophylaxis beyond hospital discharge.