Why the Fermi paradox may not be well explained by Wong and Bartlett's theory of civilization collapse. A Comment on: 'Asymptotic burnout and homeostatic awakening: a possible solution to the Fermi paradox?' (2022) by Wong and Bartlett

为什么黄和巴特利特的文明崩溃理论可能无法很好地解释费米悖论?评黄和巴特利特的论文《渐近倦怠与稳态觉醒:费米悖论的一种可能解决方案?》(2022)

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Abstract

Wong and Bartlett explain the Fermi paradox by arguing that neither human nor extra-terrestrial civilizations can escape the time window singularity which, they claim, results from the way in which social characteristics of civilizations follow super-linear growth curves of cities. We question if data at the city level necessarily can lead to conclusions at the civilization level. More specifically, we suggest ways in which learnings from research, foresight, diversity and effective future government might act outside of their model to regulate super-linear growth curves of civilizations, and thus substantively increase the likelihood of civilizations progressing towards higher levels of the Kardashev scale. Moreover, we believe their claimed history of the collapse of terrestrial societies used to evidence their model is difficult to justify. Overall, we cast reasonable doubt on the ability of their proposed model to satisfactorily explain the Fermi paradox.

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