Modelling the aqueous transport of an infectious pathogen in regional communities: application to the cholera outbreak in Haiti

模拟区域社区中传染性病原体的水性传输:以海地霍乱疫情为例

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Abstract

A mathematical model is developed to describe the dynamics of the spread of a waterborne disease among communities located along a flowing waterway. The model is formulated as a system of reaction-diffusion-advection partial differential equations in this spatial setting. The compartments of the model consist of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in the communities along the waterway, together with a term representing the pathogen load in each community and a term representing the spatial concentration of pathogens flowing along the waterway. The model is applied to the cholera outbreak in Haiti in 2010.

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