Abstract
Currently, assessment of broiler (meat) chicken welfare relies largely on labour-intensive or post-mortem measures of welfare. We here describe a method for continuously and robustly monitoring the welfare of living birds while husbandry changes are still possible. We detail the application of Bayesian modelling to motion data derived from the output of cameras placed in commercial broiler houses. We show that the forecasts produced by the model can be used to accurately assess certain key aspects of the future health and welfare of a flock. The difference between healthy flocks and less-healthy ones becomes predictable days or even weeks before clinical symptoms become apparent. Hockburn (damaged leg skin, usually only seen in birds of two weeks or older) can be well predicted in flocks of only 1-2 days of age, using this approach. Our model combines optical flow descriptors of bird motion with robust multivariate forecasting and provides a sparse, efficient model with sparsity-inducing priors to achieve maximum predictive power with the minimum number of key variables.