Abstract
Repeated measures data for rotavirus infection in children within 14 day care centres (DCCs) in the Oxfordshire area, UK, are used to explore aspects of rotavirus transmission and immunity. A biologically realistic model for the transmission of infection is presented as a set of probability models suitable for application to the data. Two transition events are modelled separately: incidence and recovery. The complexity of the underlying mechanistic model is reflected in the choice of the fixed variables in the probability models. Parameter estimation was carried out using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We use the parameter estimates obtained to build a profile of the natural history of rotavirus reinfection in an individual child. We infer that rotavirus transmission in children in DCCs is dependent on the DCC prevalence, with symptomatic infection of longer duration, but no more infectious per day of infectious period, than asymptomatic infection. There was evidence that a recent previous infection reduces the risk of disease and, to a lesser extent, reinfection, but not duration of infection. The results provide evidence that partial immunity to rotavirus infection develops over several time scales.