Abstract
No randomized controlled trial has evaluated the effect of long-term alcohol interventions on mortality. Results reported in existing observational studies may be subject to selection bias and time-varying confounding. Using data from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health 1946-1951 birth cohort, collected regularly from 1996-2016, we estimated all-cause and cancer mortality had women been assigned various alcohol interventions (in categories ranging from 0 to >30 g/day ethanol, or reduced to ≤20 g/day if higher) at baseline, and had they maintained these levels of consumption. The cumulative risks for all-cause and cancer mortality were 5.6% (10,118 women followed for 20 years) and 2.9% (18 years), respectively. For all-cause and cancer mortality, baseline ethanol up to 30 g/day showed lower risk and >30 g/day showed higher risk relative to abstention. Had women sustainedly followed the interventions, a similar relationship was observed for all-cause mortality. However, the negative association observed for intakes ≤30 g/day and positive association for intakes >30 g/day was not evident for cancer mortality. Our findings suggest that all-cause mortality could have been lower than observed if this cohort of women had consumed some alcohol (no more than 30 g/day) rather than no consumption, but cancer mortality might not.