Abstract
BACKGROUND: Currently, we cannot predict whether a pre-school child with asthma-like symptoms will have asthma at school age. Whether genetic information can help in this prediction depends on the role of genetic factors in persistence of pre-school to school-age asthma. We examined to what extent genetic and environmental factors contribute to persistence of asthma-like symptoms at ages 3 to asthma at age 7 using a bivariate genetic model for longitudinal twin data. METHODS: We performed a cohort study in monozygotic and dizygotic twins from the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR, n = 21,541 twin pairs). Bivariate genetic models were fitted to longitudinal data on asthma-like symptoms reported by parents at age 3 and 7 years to estimate the contribution of genetic and environmental factors. RESULTS: Bivariate genetic modeling showed a correlation on the liability scale between asthma-like symptoms at age 3 and asthma at age 7 of 0.746 and the contribution of genetics was estimated to be 0.917. The genetic analyses indicated a substantial influence of genetic factors on asthma-like symptoms at ages 3 and 7 (heritability 80% and 90%, respectively); hence, contribution of environmental factors was low. Persistence was explained by a high (rg = 0.807) genetic correlation. CONCLUSION: Parental-reported asthma-like symptoms at age 3 and asthma at age 7 are highly heritably. The phenotype of asthma-like symptoms at age 3 and 7 was highly correlated and mainly due to heritable factors, indicating high persistence of asthma development over ages 3 and 7.