Abstract
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) is a determining factor affecting the survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. This study aims at developing a novel prognostic stratification tool for CRLM resection. METHODS: In this retrospective study, 666 CRC patients who underwent complete CRLM resection from two Chinese medical institutions between 2001 and 2016 were classified into the training (341 patients) and validation (325 patients) cohorts. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Associations between clinicopathological variables, circulating lipid and inflammation biomarkers, and OS were explored. The five most significant prognostic factors were incorporated into the Circulating Lipid- and Inflammation-based Risk (CLIR) score. The predictive ability of the CLIR score and Fong's Clinical Risk Score (CRS) was compared by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: Five independent predictors associated with worse OS were identified in the training cohort: number of CRLMs >4, maximum diameter of CRLM >4.4 cm, primary lymph node-positive, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level >250.5 U/L, and serum low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C)/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio >2.9. These predictors were included in the CLIR score and each factor was assigned one point. Median OS for the low (score 0-1)-, intermediate (score 2-3)-, and high (score 4-5)-risk groups was 134.0 months, 39.9 months, and 18.7 months in the pooled cohort. The CLIR score outperformed the Fong score with superior discriminatory capacities for OS and RFS, both in the training and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The CLIR score demonstrated a promising ability to predict the long-term survival of CRC patients after complete hepatic resection.