Abstract
BACKGROUND: The Tyrer-Cuzick model has been shown to overestimate risk in women with atypical hyperplasia, although its accuracy among women with lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) is unknown. We evaluated the accuracy of the Tyrer-Cuzick model for predicting invasive breast cancer (IBC) development among women with LCIS. METHODS: Women with LCIS participating in surveillance from 1987 to 2017 were identified from a prospectively maintained database. Tyrer-Cuzick score (version 7) was calculated near the time of LCIS diagnosis. Patients with prior or concurrent breast cancer, a BRCA mutation, receiving chemoprevention, or with pleomorphic LCIS were excluded. Invasive cancer-free probability was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: A total of 1192 women with a median follow-up of 6 years (interquartile range [IQR] 2.5-9.9) were included. Median age at LCIS diagnosis was 49 years (IQR 45-55), 88% were white; 37% were postmenopausal, 28% had ≥ 1 first-degree family member with breast cancer, and 13% had ≥ 2 second-degree family members with breast cancer. In total, 128 patients developed an IBC; median age at diagnosis was 54 years (IQR 49-61). Five- and 10-year cumulative incidences of invasive cancer were 8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6-9%) and 14% (95% CI 12-17%), respectively. The median Tyrer-Cuzick 10-year risk score was 20.1 (IQR 17.4-24.3). Discrimination measured by the C-index was 0.493, confirming that the Tyrer-Cuzick model is not well calibrated in this patient population. CONCLUSIONS: The Tyrer-Cuzick model is not accurate and may overpredict IBC risk for women with LCIS, and therefore should not be used for breast cancer risk assessment in this high-risk population.