Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Posttreatment surveillance protocols most often endure for 5 years after resection of colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM). Most recurrences happen within 3 years after surgical removal of the tumour. This study analysed the need of surveillance for patients with at least 3 years of disease-free survival after potentially curative resection of CRLM. METHODS: A single-centre, retrospective analysis of all consecutive patients who underwent treatment for CRLM with curative intent between 2000 and 2011. RESULTS: In total, 152 of 545 patients (28 %) remained disease-free for 3 years after successful resection of the CRLM. The estimated recurrence rate after 10 years of follow-up in this group of 152 patients was 27 %. More than half of these patients (55 %) could be treated with curative intent for their recurrences. Multivariable analysis revealed that the nodal status of the primary tumour is of significant prognostic value for developing recurrences after 3 years of disease-free survival. A disease-free interval of less than 12 months between resection of primary tumour and detection of CRLM shows a trend towards significance. Both factors were used to create a risk score, showing that patients with a low-risk profile (node-negative status and a disease-free interval <12 months) have an estimated recurrence rate of 5 % and might not benefit from intensive surveillance beyond 3 years of follow-up without a recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The currently developed risk score shows that follow-up can be stopped in a specific subgroup 3 years after treatment for their CRLM with curative intent.