Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection patients who do not fulfill the typical treatment indications should be followed up. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of liver fibrosis progression (LFP) and assess the role of noninvasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis in monitoring LFP in these patients. METHODS: A total of 116 patients with active HBV replication, persistently normal or minimally elevated alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels, and no or mild hepatic necroinflammation or fibrosis based on liver biopsy tests at baseline and followed by a repeated liver biopsy assessment during follow-up. LFP was defined as increase in METAVIR fibrosis score by 1 score or more. RESULTS: Among 116 patients, 40 (34.5%) progressed by at least one fibrosis stage, 16 (13.8%) progressed by at least two fibrosis stages at a median follow-up interval of 27 months (IQR: 12-36). Multivariate analysis confirmed the significant association of an increase in liver stiffness measurement (LSM) value with LFP on histology (p =0.005). The AUROC of LSM value increase rate is significantly higher than that of serum-based NITs of liver fibrosis for the prediction of LFP (p < 0.05). An increase in LSM by 20% is the optimal cutoff for the prediction of LFP. CONCLUSION: LFP is non-negligible in patients with active HBV replication, persistently normal or minimally elevated ALT, and initially no or minimal hepatic necroinflammation or fibrosis. Serial LSM tests would be more reliable in identifying LFP than serum-based NITs, and easier to obtain than serial liver biopsy tests.