Abstract
Urban agglomerations are crucial for achieving dual-carbon goals, and the interaction between carbon emissions and ecological welfare performance (EWP) remains unclear. EWP refers to the efficiency of converting ecological resources into human welfare. Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration (CCUA) during 2012–2022 as a case, this study decomposes EWP into two sub-stages, constructs an evaluation system including ecological input, economic level, undesirable output and welfare output, and calculates EWP of 176 samples using the Super-Efficiency Network Slack-Based Measure Model (Super-NSBM). This study further analyzes EWP’s evolution mechanism through panel Tobit model and spatial econometric analysis, revealing the temporal and spatial characteristics and driving factors of EWP in CCUA. Results show: (1) The average EWP of CCUA was 0.629, mainly limited by low economic welfare efficiency. (2) Spatially, EWP of eastern cities in CCUA was higher and that of western cities was lower, with polarization in both EWP stages. (3) CCUA achieved high economic growth at the cost of low EWP, while carbon emissions exerted positive impacts and positive spillover effects on EWP.