Abstract
Systems theory and complex science, especially knowledge of social-ecological interdependencies, are urgently needed in planning and decision-making on sustainable urban development due to the intensification of the contradiction between human development and nature conservation. Here, we present an analytical framework, the "social-ecological coupling trajectory", that integrates the social-ecological coupling, multi-stability, causal feedbacks and sustainable management through understanding the evolution of the urban social-ecological system (SES). This framework is applied to a typical urban SES, i.e., China's rapidly prosperous Pearl River Delta (PRD). Our results indicate that the SES evolution in the PRD is a phased process, which is accompanied by a continuous decline in major ecosystem services (ESs) and the disproportionate decline of ecological management performance. Further analysis shows that social and economic policies have a decisive role in driving the evolution of SES and the cumulative effect of sustained human interference is directly linked to the disproportionate increase in sustainability challenges. The findings of critical slowing down and evolution patterns of SES in the PRD may provide evidence for the threshold recognition and regime shift prediction in SES. In sum, this study expands the theoretical framework and empirical knowledge of SES evolution and provides a pathway for sustainable development of regions seeking prosperity from the social-ecological coupling perspective.