Abstract
California, a pioneer in EV adoption, has enacted ambitious electric vehicle (EV) policies that will generate a large burden on the state's electric distribution system. We investigate the statewide impact of uncontrolled EV charging on the electric distribution networks at a large scale and high granularity, by employing an EV charging profile projection that combines travel demand model, EV adoption model, and real-world EV charging data. We find a substantial need for infrastructure upgrades in 50% of feeders by 2035, and 67% of feeders by 2045. The distribution system across California must upgrade its capacity by 25 GW by 2045, corresponding to a cost between $6 and $20 billion. While the additional infrastructure cost drives the electricity price up, it is offset by the downward pressure from the growth of total electricity consumption and leads to a reduction in electricity rate between $0.01 and $0.06/kWh by 2045. We also find that overloading conditions are highly diverse spatially, with feeders in residential areas requiring twice as much upgrade compared to commercial areas. Our study provides a framework for evaluating EVs' impact on the distribution grid and indicates the potential to reduce infrastructure upgrade costs by shifting home-charging demand. The imminent challenges confronting California serve as a microcosm of the forthcoming obstacles anticipated worldwide due to the prevailing global trend of EV adoption.