Abstract
INTRODUCTION: We assessed the impact of HER2-positive early breast cancer (EBC) treatment landscape changes following the introduction of pertuzumab and ado-trastuzumab emtansine (T-DM1) on cumulative population-level recurrences avoided since 2013 (first pertuzumab approval for EBC in the United States; US). METHODS: We constructed a multi-year epidemiologic population treatment-impact model to estimate annual recurrences between 2013 and 2031. Parameters were: BC incidence; stage I-III proportion; HER2-positive disease proportion; treatment proportions for neoadjuvant-only, adjuvant-only, and neoadjuvant-adjuvant continuation; and therapeutic agent proportions within each of those settings (chemotherapy only, trastuzumab ± chemotherapy, pertuzumab with trastuzumab ± chemotherapy, or T-DM1). The primary endpoint was cumulative recurrences, estimated by incorporating extrapolated clinical trial data for each regimen of interest into the model under four scenarios. RESULTS: Approximately 889,057 women were predicted to be diagnosed with stage I-III HER2-positive BC from 2006 to 2031 in the US and potentially indicated for HER2-targeted treatment. In steady-state equilibrium, the model estimated that real-world utilization of pertuzumab and T-DM1 will reduce the population-level number of recurrences by approximately 32%, with 7226 recurrences predicted in 2031 based on current utilization rates. In different modeled scenarios, use of neoadjuvant pertuzumab, continuation of pertuzumab in the adjuvant setting, and T-DM1 in the adjuvant setting in women with residual disease after neoadjuvant treatment were all predicted to reduce the number of recurrences. CONCLUSION: Given the improvement of HER2-targeted treatments, alongside increases in BC disease burden, we expect that the population-level impact of HER2-targeted treatments will accelerate over the next decade. Our results suggest that utilization of HER2-targeted treatments in the US has the potential to change the epidemiology of HER2-positive EBC by preventing a substantial number of women from experiencing disease recurrence. These improvements may help to inform our understanding of the future disease and economic burden of HER2-positive BC in the US.