Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The KEYNOTE-054 trial found that adjuvant treatment with pembrolizumab improved recurrence-free survival versus placebo in completely resected high-risk stage III melanoma patients. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of adjuvant pembrolizumab in Colombia compared with watchful waiting, a widely used strategy despite the high risk of recurrence with surgery alone. METHODS: A four-health state [recurrence-free (RF), locoregional recurrence (LR), distant metastases (DM), and death) Markov model was developed to assess the lifetime medical costs and outcomes (3% annual discount), along with cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The transitions from the RF and LR states were modeled using KEYNOTE-054 data, and those from the DM state were modeled using data from the KEYNOTE-006 trial and a network meta-analysis of advanced treatments received after adjuvant pembrolizumab and watchful waiting. The health state utilities were derived from KEYNOTE-054 Euro-QoL data and literature. Costs are expressed in 2021 Colombian pesos (COP). RESULTS: Over a 46-year time horizon, patients on adjuvant pembrolizumab and watchful waiting were estimated to gain 9.69 and 7.56 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), 10.83 and 8.65 life-years (LYs), and incur costs of COP 663,595,726 and COP 563,237,206, respectively. The proportion of LYs spent in RF state was 84.63% for pembrolizumab and 72.13% for watchful waiting, yielding lower subsequent treatment, disease management, and terminal care costs for pembrolizumab. Adjuvant pembrolizumab improved survival by 2.18 LYs and 2.13 QALYs versus watchful waiting. The ICER per QALY was COP 47,081,917, primarily driven by recurrence rates and advanced melanoma treatments. The deterministic sensitivity analysis results were robust and consistent across various reasonable inputs and alternative scenarios. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of COP 69,150,201 per QALY, the probability of pembrolizumab being cost-effective was 65.70%. CONCLUSION: Pembrolizumab is cost-effective as an adjuvant treatment compared to watchful waiting among patients with high-risk stage III melanoma after complete resection in Colombia.