Abstract
Catastrophic decline of Indigenous populations in the Americas following European contact is one of the most severe demographic events in the history of humanity, but uncertainty persists about the timing and scale of the collapse, which has implications for not only Indigenous history but also the understanding of historical ecology. A long-standing hypothesis that a continent-wide pandemic broke out immediately upon the arrival of Spanish seafarers has been challenged in recent years by a model of regional epidemics erupting asynchronously, causing different rates of population decline in different areas. Some researchers have suggested that, in California, significant depopulation occurred during the first two centuries of the post-Columbus era, which led to a "rebound" in native flora and fauna by the time of sustained European contact after 1769. Here, we combine a comprehensive prehistoric osteological dataset (n = 10,256 individuals) with historic mission mortuary records (n = 23,459 individuals) that together span from 3050 cal BC to AD 1870 to systematically evaluate changes in mortality over time by constructing life tables and conducting survival analysis of age-at-death records. Results show that a dramatic shift in the shape of mortality risk consistent with a plague-like population structure began only after sustained contact with European invaders, when permanent Spanish settlements and missions were established ca. AD 1770. These declines reflect the syndemic effects of newly introduced diseases and the severe cultural disruption of Indigenous lifeways by the Spanish colonial system.