Abstract
Therapeutic combinations of VEGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor plus immune checkpoint blockade now represent a standard in the first-line management of patients with advanced renal cell carcinoma. Tumor molecular profiling has shown notable heterogeneity when it comes to activation states of relevant pathways, and it is not clear that concurrent pursuit of two mechanisms of action is needed in all patients. Here, we applied an in silico drug model to simulate combination therapy by integrating previously reported findings from individual monotherapy studies. Clinical data was collected from prospective clinical trials of axitinib, cabozantinib, pembrolizumab and nivolumab. Efficacy of two-drug combination regimens (cabozantinib plus nivolumab, and axitinib plus pembrolizumab) was then modeled assuming independent effects of each partner. Reduction in target lesions, objective response rates (ORR), and progression-free survival (PFS) were projected based on previously reported activity of each agent, randomly pairing efficacy data from two source trials for individual patients and including only the superior effect of each pair in the model. In silico results were then contextualized to register phase III studies of these combinations with similar ORR, PFS, and best tumor response. As increasingly complex therapeutic strategies emerge, computational tools like this could help define benchmarks for trial designs and precision medicine efforts. Summary statement: In silico drug modeling provides meaningful insights into the effects of combination immunotherapy for patients with advanced kidney cancer.