Abstract
BACKGROUND: Small cell lung cancer (SCLC) is a highly malignant cancer characterized by metastasis and an extremely poor prognosis. Although combined chemoimmunotherapy improves the prognosis of extensive-stage (ES)-SCLC, the survival benefits remain limited. Furthermore, no reliable biomarker is available so far to predict the treatment outcomes for chemoimmunotherapy. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients with ES-SCLC treated with first-line combined atezolizumab or durvalumab with standard chemotherapy between Janauray 1, 2019 and October 1, 2022 at five medical centers in China as the chemoimmunotherapy group. The patients were divided into one training cohort and two independent external validation cohorts. Additionally, we created a control group of ES-SCLC who was treated with first-line standard chemotherapy alone. The Radiomics Score was derived using machine learning algorithms based on the radiomics features extracted in the regions of interest delineated on the chest CT obtained before treatment. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to identify clinical features associated with therapeutic efficacy. The log-rank test, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, and Concordance Index (C-index) were used to assess the effectiveness of the models. RESULTS: A total of 341 patients (mean age, 62±8.7 years) were included in our study. After a median follow-up time of 12.1 months, the median progression-free survival (mPFS) was 7.1 (95% CI 6.6 to 7.7) months, whereas the median overall survival (mOS) was not reached. The TNM stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, and Lung Immune Prognostic Index showed significant correlations with PFS. We proposed a predictive model based on eight radiomics features to determine the risk of chemoimmunotherapy resistance among patients with SCLC (validation set 1: mPFS, 12.0 m vs 5.0 m, C-index=0.634; validation set 2: mPFS, 10.8 m vs 6.1 m, C-index=0.617). By incorporating the clinical features associated with PFS into the radiomics model, the predictive efficacy was substantially improved. Consequently, the low-progression-risk group exhibited a significantly longer mPFS than the high-progression-risk group in both validation set 1 (mPFS, 12.8 m vs 4.5 m, HR=0.40, p=0.028) and validation set 2 (mPFS, 9.2 m vs 4.6 m, HR=0.30, p=0.012). External validation set 1 and set 2 yielded the highest 6-month area under the curve and C-index of 0.852 and 0.820, respectively. Importantly, the integrated prediction model also exhibited considerable differentiation power for survival outcomes. The HR for OS derived from the low-progression-risk and high-progression-risk groups was 0.28 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.48) in all patients and 0.20 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.54) in validation set. By contrast, no significant differences were observed in PFS and OS, between high-progression-risk patients receiving chemoimmunotherapy and the chemotherapy cohort (mPFS, 5.5 m vs 5.9 m, HR=0.90, p=0.547; mOS, 14.5 m vs 13.7 m, HR=0.97, p=0.910). CONCLUSIONS: The integrated clinical and radiomics model can predict the treatment outcomes in patients with ES-SCLC receiving chemoimmunotherapy, rendering a convenient and low-cost prognostic model for decision-making regarding patient management.