Abstract
Background: The T1 substaging of bladder cancer (BCa) potentially impacts disease progression. The objective of the study was to compare the prognostic accuracy of two substaging systems on the recurrence and progression of primary pathologic T1 (pT1) BCa and to test a nomogram based on pT1 substaging for predicting recurrence-free survival (RFS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Methods: The medical records of 204 patients affected by pT1 BCa were retrospectively reviewed. Substaging was defined according to the depth of lamina propria invasion in T1(a-c) and the extension of the lamina propria invasion to T1-microinvasive (T1(m)) or T1-extensive (T1(e)). Uni- and multivariable Cox regression models evaluated the independent variables correlated with recurrence and progression. The predictive accuracies of the two substaging systems were compared by Harrell's C index. Multivariate Cox regression models for the RFS and PFS were also depicted by a nomogram. Results: The 5-year RFS was 47.5% with a significant difference between T1(c) and T1(a) (p = 0.02) and between T1(e) and T1(m) (p < 0.001). The 5-year PFS was 75.9% with a significant difference between T1(c) and T1(a) (p = 0.011) and between T1(e) and T1(m) (p < 0.001). Model T1(m-e) showed a higher predictive power than T1(a-c) for predicting RFS and PFS. In the univariate and multivariate model subcategory T1e, the diameter, location, and number of tumors were confirmed as factors influencing recurrence and progression after adjusting for the other variables. The nomogram incorporating the T1(m-e) model showed a satisfactory agreement between model predictions at 5 years and actual observations. Conclusions: Substaging is significantly associated with RFS and PFS for patients affected by T1 BCa and should be included in innovative prognostic nomograms.