Abstract
OBJECTIVES: It is unknown whether joint inflammation precedes other articular tissue damage in osteoarthritis. Therefore, this study aims to determine if synovitis precedes the development of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (ROA). METHODS: The participants in this nested case-control study were selected from persons in the Osteoarthritis Initiative with knees that had a Kellgren Lawrence grading (KLG)=0 at baseline (BL). These knees were evaluated annually with radiography and non-contrast-enhanced MRI over 4 years. MRIs were assessed for effusion-synovitis and Hoffa-synovitis. Case knees were defined by ROA (KLG≥2) on the postero-anterior knee radiographs at any assessment after BL. Radiographs were assessed at P0 (time of onset of ROA), 1 year prior to P0 (P-1) and at BL. Controls were participants who did not develop incident ROA (iROA) from BL to 48 months). RESULTS: 133 knees of 120 persons with ROA (83 women) were matched to 133 control knees (83 women). ORs for occurrence of iROA associated with the presence of effusion-synovitis at BL, P-1 and P0 were 1.56 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.81), 3.23 (1.72 to 6.06) and 4.7 (1.10 to 2.95), respectively. The ORs for the occurrence of iROA associated with the presence of Hoffa-synovitis at BL, P-1 and P0 were 1.80 (1.1 to 2.95), 2.47 (1.45 to 4.23) and 2.40 (1.43 to 4.04), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Effusion-synovitis and Hoffa-synovitis strongly predicted the development of iROA.