Abstract
Risk prediction models for type 2 diabetes can be useful for the early detection of individuals at high risk. However, models may also bias clinical decision-making processes, for instance by differential risk miscalibration across racial groups. We investigated whether the Prediabetes Risk Test (PRT) issued by the National Diabetes Prevention Program, and two prognostic models, the Framingham Offspring Risk Score, and the ARIC Model, demonstrate racial bias between non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks. We used National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data, sampled in six independent two-year batches between 1999 and 2010. A total of 9,987 adults without a prior diagnosis of diabetes and with fasting blood samples available were included. We calculated race- and year-specific average predicted risks of type 2 diabetes according to the risk models. We compared the predicted risks with observed ones extracted from the US Diabetes Surveillance System across racial groups (summary calibration). All investigated models were found to be miscalibrated with regard to race, consistently across the survey years. The Framingham Offspring Risk Score overestimated type 2 diabetes risk for non-Hispanic Whites and underestimated risk for non-Hispanic Blacks. The PRT and the ARIC models overestimated risk for both races, but more so for non-Hispanic Whites. These landmark models overestimated the risk of type 2 diabetes for non-Hispanic Whites more severely than for non-Hispanic Blacks. This may result in a larger proportion of non-Hispanic Whites being prioritized for preventive interventions, but it also increases the risk of overdiagnosis and overtreatment in this group. On the other hand, a larger proportion of non-Hispanic Blacks may be potentially underprioritized and undertreated.