Abstract
BACKGROUND: HER2-positive breast cancer (BC) is a highly aggressive phenotype. The role of the host immune features in predictive response to anti-HER2 therapies and prognosis in BC has already been suggested. We aimed to develop a predictive and prognostic model and examine its relevance to the clinical outcomes of patients with HER2-positive BC. METHODS: Immune effective score (IES) was constructed using principal component analysis algorithms. A bioinformatic analysis using four independent cohorts (GSE66305, n = 88; GSE130786, n = 110; TCGA, n = 123; METABRIC, n = 236) established associations between IES and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: Genes associated with neoadjuvant trastuzumab therapy response were enriched in pathways related to antitumor immune activities. IES was demonstrated to be a predictive biomarker to neoadjuvant trastuzumab therapy benefits (GSE66305: area under the curve (AUC) = 0.804; GSE130786: AUC = 0.704). In addition, IES was identified as an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (OS) in the TCGA cohort (p = 0.036, hazard ratio (HR): 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.449-0.97) and METABRIC cohort (p = 0.037, HR: 0.9, 95% CI: 0.81-0.99). CONCLUSION: IES has a predictive value for response to neoadjuvant trastuzumab therapy and independent prognostic value for HER2-positive breast cancer.