Abstract
Alterations in the gut microbiome are associated with the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and can be used as a diagnostic measure. However, longitudinal data of the gut microbiome and knowledge about its prognostic significance for the development and progression of AD are limited. The aim of the present study was to develop a reliable predictive model based on gut microbiome data for AD development. In this longitudinal study, we investigated the intestinal microbiome in 49 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients over a mean (SD) follow-up of 3.7 (0.6) years, using shotgun metagenomics. At the end of the 4-year follow-up (4yFU), 27 MCI patients converted to AD dementia and 22 MCI patients remained stable. The best taxonomic model for the discrimination of AD dementia converters from stable MCI patients included 24 genera, yielding an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.87 at BL, 0.92 at 1yFU and 0.95 at 4yFU. The best models with functional data were obtained via analyzing 25 GO (Gene Ontology) features with an AUROC of 0.87 at BL, 0.85 at 1yFU and 0.81 at 4yFU and 33 KO [Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) ortholog] features with an AUROC of 0.79 at BL, 0.88 at 1yFU and 0.82 at 4yFU. Using ensemble learning for these three models, including a clinical model with the four parameters of age, gender, body mass index (BMI) and Apolipoprotein E (ApoE) genotype, yielded an AUROC of 0.96 at BL, 0.96 at 1yFU and 0.97 at 4yFU. In conclusion, we identified novel and timely stable gut microbiome algorithms that accurately predict progression to AD dementia in individuals with MCI over a 4yFU period.