Abstract
The aim of this study was to calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) to determine whether p53 codon 72 can be used as a bladder cancer management index. Ninety-six patients diagnosed with bladed cancer and two control groups of 427 randomly sampled community participants and 142 non-cancerous individuals without a prior history of cancer were enrolled. After preliminary analysis, the convergent validity resulted in 96 patients from this study and 129 patients from our previous study. Results showed that these two groups were of the same population, and could be merged into one case group. Logistic regression showed that the Pro/Pro genotype was not statistically significantly associated with bladder cancer incidence using each sample set after adjustment by age and gender. Moreover, the Pro/Pro genotype was not associated with high-grade tumors (P=0.078), but was highly correlated to muscle-invasive tumors (P=0.002). Pro/Pro genotype carriers were estimated to have a 3.36-fold higher risk to develop invasive tumors compared to non-carriers. The NPV of the Pro/Pro genotype for invasive tumors was 88.00%, and the PPV was 31.91%. By Cox regression analysis, high-grade tumors were associated with recurrence (P=0.020, OR=1.83), whereas invasive tumors were associated with cancer-related death (P<0.001, OR=2.87). p53 codon 72 polymorphism is associated with bladder cancer progression rather than incidence and prognosis. The Pro/Pro genotype in p53 codon 72 polymorphism shows a high NPV for bladder cancer progression, thus, it can be used clinically as a progression index in bladder cancer management.